peterf.com

By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: June 22, 2010

Active Tropical Systems and 48h Potential

TAMPA – A tropical wave working across the Caribbean Sea lost some of its punch today and forecasters give it only a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm by Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said.

Earlier, forecasters said the wave had a much higher chance of developing – 40 percent – but it became less organized later today.

However, later in the week the wave will move into a region where the atmosphere will be more favorable for it to slowly develop, forecasters said.

The wave is roughly south of Hispaniola and about 900 miles southeast of Key West, moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph with winds just less than 30 mph.

Invest #93 Forecast Models

Computer models that forecast a storm’s path projected the wave moving across the Caribbean south of Jamaica in the next day or so. After that, the models scattered widely, with a few taking the storm across the Yucatan Peninsula but most moving it to the central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend.

The wave is moving over water in the Caribbean that is about 85 degrees, easily warm enough to fuel a storm.

Water in the central Gulf where models take it also is about 85 degrees, the temperature the Gulf usually doesn’t reach until August.

Intensity forecasts were fairly uniform in predicting the wave will become a tropical storm by Thursday or Friday. Beyond that, a few projected it reaching hurricane strength by the weekend.

Most of the intensity models expect the storm to weaken early next week.

The season’s first tropical storm would be called Alex.

Source & Copyright: TBO.com

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Product Description Document:  http://products.weather.gov/PDD/GraphicalTwo.pdf
Additional web description:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgtwo.shtml

SOURCE: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

Product Description Document:  http://products.weather.gov/PDD/GraphicalTwo.pdf 

Additional web description:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgtwo.shtml

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml