TBO: Tropical wave in Caribbean could be second storm
By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune
Published: July 4, 2010
Invest #96 Forecast Models - Zoom Level 1
Only eight days after the season’s first tropical storm formed, forecastersare watching another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea with at least amoderate chance of becoming the second storm.
Thunderstorms inside the wave moving west northwest at 15 mph became better organized today as air pressure fell and the National Hurricane Center said the wave was heading toward an area that might allow intensification.
Some of the preliminary computer tracking models project the wave moving along a similar path followed by Hurricane Alex that became the season’s first named storm on June 26.
Invest #96 Satellite
The track of Alex took it across the Yucatan Peninsula, into the western Gulf of Mexico and back ashore in northern Mexico where it quickly fell apart.
Forecasters at the hurricane center give the latest wave south of Cuba less than a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm by Tuesday, and most models that forecast intensity agree.
But most of those models also project the wave reaching tropical storm strength later in the week but keep it below hurricane level.
The wave will move through an area with warm water and light winds high in the atmosphere that could stunt its development.
The next storm will be named Bonnie.
The hurricane center is also watching an area of low pressure about 115 mph south of the mouth of the Mississippi River but forecasters give it a low chance of becoming a tropical storm before it moves over land, possibly by Monday.
Source & Copyright: TBO.com
