NOAA increases predicted numbers of storms, hurricanes |

NOAA increases predicted numbers of storms, hurricanes |


By ROB SHAW | The Tampa Tribune Published: August 04, 2011 Updated: August 04, 2011 – 12:03 PM

Emily’s out there now.

And there will be plenty more in her wake.

That’s the word from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this morning, which released its updated outlook for this year’s hurricane season.

Forecasters say the season, which runs through Nov. 30, should have between 14 and 19 named storms. That’s up from the May forecast of 12 to 18.

The expected number of hurricanes has jumped to seven to 10 from six to 10.

A typical season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”

With Emily’s meandering through the Caribbean this week and dropping torrential rains, there have been five named storms already this season.

Normally, the fifth named storm of the season doesn’t even form until the end of August.

Reduced wind shear and lower air pressure across the Atlantic Ocean are factors in the revised forecast. In additions, the waters of the Atlantic are above normal as well – the third warmest on record.