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Active Tropical Systems and 48 Hour Potential

The National Hurricane Center has raised the chances that the tropical wave named 97L will develop into a depression or tropical storm. This afternnoon NHC is giving it a 60% chance of development. This percentage refers to the probability that the wave will become a tropical storm with at least 39 mph winds within the next 48 hours.

The wave is beginning to get better organized. As it moves west-northwestward into an environment of low sheer, further development into a depression or tropical storms is likely. The wave is moving to the WNW at about 10 mph which could put it in the Bahamas and near south Florida by Friday. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on Wednesday.

Invest 97L Models

Most models have not forecasted development of this system until recent runs. The NAM has been predicting a closed low system for some time now, however the GFS model has just come around with a closed low feature. A third model, the European (ECMWF), still brings the system through the Florida Straights as a open wave, or weaker system, this weekend. So far forecasters have leaned toward this weaker solution, but there are now trends toward a more robust system.

The system has been producing heavy rainfall across the Virgin Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico over the past few days. The next few days will likely bring flooding rains to parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, eventually the Bahamas.

We are expecting to see scattered showers and storms this weekend if it passes by in it’s current form. If it does develop further, the timing, structure and intensity forecasts will likely change affecting our weekend forecast. Stay tuned to www.10connects.com and our Tropical Weather page for the latest updates.

Meteorologist Bobby Deskins

Source & Copyright: 10Connects.com
Graphics Copyright: HAMweather.com

By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 4, 2010

Invest #96 Forecast Models - Zoom Level 1

Only eight days after the season’s first tropical storm formed, forecastersare watching another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea with at least amoderate chance of becoming the second storm.

Thunderstorms inside the wave moving west northwest at 15 mph became better organized today as air pressure fell and the National Hurricane Center said the wave was heading toward an area that might allow intensification.

Some of the preliminary computer tracking models project the wave moving along a similar path followed by Hurricane Alex that became the season’s first named storm on June 26.

Invest #96 Satellite

The track of Alex took it across the Yucatan Peninsula, into the western Gulf of Mexico and back ashore in northern Mexico where it quickly fell apart.

Forecasters at the hurricane center give the latest wave south of Cuba less than a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm by Tuesday, and most models that forecast intensity agree.

But most of those models also project the wave reaching tropical storm strength later in the week but keep it below hurricane level.

The wave will move through an area with warm water and light winds high in the atmosphere that could stunt its development.

The next storm will be named Bonnie.

The hurricane center is also watching an area of low pressure about 115 mph south of the mouth of the Mississippi River but forecasters give it a low chance of becoming a tropical storm before it moves over land, possibly by Monday.

Source & Copyright: TBO.com